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A Song of Ice and Fire Analysis & Predictions

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While it may be preferred to simply analyze the text as G.R.R.M. has given us, for combination show & book fans like myself, it is impossible not to compare Seasons 7&8 alongside the theorizing, discussion, and analysis of predictions for The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring. Being as objective as possible (….I really do try) to the HBO series, we can assume some general endpoints for a number of characters:

  • Sansa will become Queen of an independent North;
  • Theon will die with honor in protection of the Starks;
  • Arya will depart Westeros for a “Great Beyond” of some kind.

Many of these seem supportable conclusions both in text (the historical example of Alyssa Farling was written for a reason) and in the real world:

“The major points of the ending will be things I told them five or six years ago. But there may also be changes, and there’ll be a lot added.” 

GRRM. Cbr.com. March 2019

However, these characters’ arcs in seasons 6-8 are almost wholly disconnected from many of the books’ mechanics that could drive to those same conclusions.

With that in mind, some of what I’ve developed here is based on my own frantic need to make sense of the show’s conclusions; in other areas I completely ignore what was depicted onscreen. For the most part, the written word reigns supreme, and the show serves only as a very basic, untrustworthy guide in our ongoing vigil awaiting the end of the book series.

G.R.R.M.’s world building is often (rightfully) cited as a source of admiration. In other ways, it is the source of our woes in waiting: the story growing in the telling has made it deeper, richer, but still unfinished. As I return again and again to this series, I find myself thinking of the first book, the first setting, the first cast of characters and ask: what are the plans for the Starks and for the North?

It’s easy to focus on the Main Players, our Jon, Bran, Sansa, and Arya; maybe we get a little broader into the political landscape and muse on the Manderly’s, Lady Dustin, the Reeds. But G.R.R.M. doesn’t only showcase the ruling classes. The ordinary people are often deployed to show the true stakes of the story. And like Daenerys – to go forward, must go back – I find myself returning to the early ordinary figure who has rejoined the story in painful fashion: Jeyne Poole.

This series will examine at length the future fate of Jeyne. It’s my belief that Jeyne will never be unmasked, but will continue on as Arya in perpetuity. Since Jeyne is not a POV herself, this theory must be examined against our core players and their arcs. Each essay will go into detail about how I think Jeyne/Arya will bear out for a particular character or group. Currently I am planning to proceed based in geographic proximity, though that may change in the coming weeks.

This theory started as a “What if…”, and quickly spiraled outward as I tried to think of all the avenues and find where it wouldn’t work. Obviously, time and our author will tell if I’m correct; but this series in many ways is intended to workshop this theory I have nursed these past few years. I invite my fellow ASOIAF lovers to share their feedback along the way. I humbly acknowledge the legions that have devoted work to theorizing over the years, and hope that my contribution adds something to the conversation.

Spoilers for all published books, including Fire and Blood and Dunk and Egg novellas, as well as all available Winds of Winter material. Though discussion of HBO’s Game of Thrones will be included in some areas when relevant, the primary focus of my predictions will be rooted in the work of George R.R. Martin.

Finally, special acknowledgement and thanks must be given to those who do not know me but have nonetheless kept me company these many years; whose collective contributions to the wider fan community & discussion are invaluable, and who have been my own treasured “friends along the way”:

  • Binge Mode
  • Davos’ Fingers
  • Girls Gone Canon
  • Grey Area
  • History of Westeros
  • In Deep Geek
  • Joe Magician
  • Lucifer Means Lightbringer
  • Not a Podcast
  • Radio Westeros
  • Many, many others whose names may be lost in this brain mush but who have nonetheless contributed
  • and George R.R. Martin himself, for his masterful work that has brought so much to all of our lives.

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